THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: A VULNERABLE LIFELINE
Regional Geography
The Strait
The Strait of Hormuz is about 275 kilometers long and an average of 80 kilometers wide. At its narrowest point, between Ra's Sharitah on Oman's Musandam Peninsula and the Iranian island of Jazireh-ye Larak, the waterway is about 50 kilometers wide. Nearly everywhere the Strait is more than 45 meters deep; off the Omani coast, depths range from 75 to 225 meters. The main inbound and outbound shipping channels traverse this area.
There are several islands in the Strait. The largest are close to the Iranian shore and of little concern to vessels transiting the main shipping channels. The remaining islands lie off the northern coast of the Musandam Peninsula, and, while they are important in the demarcation of the shipping channels, they offer no impediment to vessels. They could, however, provide concealment for seaborne terrorists in the channel area.
From July through September the currents in the Strait of Hormuz generally flow westerly into the Persian Gulf, under the influence of the summer monsoon. These currents average about 1 knot. The tidal currents are much stronger, however - about 4 knots off the Musandam Peninsula, and 2 to 3 knots off the Iranian coast. These tidal currents sometimes pose problems to shipping in the Strait.
On the other hand, winds in the Strait are rarely hazardous to shipping. The winds are variable except from July to September, when southeasterly winds prevail. Over much of the year winds seldom exceed 17 to 21 knots, but during the winter months stronger winds from the west and north occasionally reach 40 knots. The winds tend to follow the coastline; they are southwesterly west of the Strait, westerly in the Strait, and northwesterly east of the Strait.
The main shipping channels through the Strait of Hormuz are the shortest practicable route around the rugged Musandam Peninsula of northern Oman. Both the inbound (westbound) and outbound (eastbound) channels provide ample clearance for deep-draft vessels.
The inbound channel traverses either side of the Quoin Islands. It varies between 31 and 35 kilometers in length, depending on the route chosen, and from 3.2 to almost 10 kilometers in width. Depths range from 75 to 100 meters except in the immediate vicinity of the islands. Several oil companies strongly advise their inbound ships to pass north of the islands, to avoid both the congestion of the shorter southern route and the stronger tidal current there.
The outbound channel passes 3.6 kilometers south of Little Quoin Island. It is 25 kilometers long and 3.2 kilometers wide. This is the deeper of the two channels with depths ranging from 85 to 225 meters. There are submarine cables under this channel, but they pose no hazard to navigation.
Most shipping passes through these main channels. However, a broad, slightly shallower, alternate pas- sageway (50 kilometers wide and 45 to 80 meters deep) lies between the Quoin Islands and Iran. Vessels calling at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas use this part of the Strait.
As is clear from these dimensions, the sinking of one or even several supertankers would not block the Strait of Hormuz, although attendant oil slicks might hamper shipping for a while.
Oman
The rugged coast of northern Oman, with its scraggy Musandam Peninsula and its numerous offshore is- lands, borders the Strait of Hormuz on the south and could provide concealment for potential terrorists. Northern Oman is mountainous and largely void of vegetation. Elevations generally range between 1,000 and 2,000 meters, but the highest peak, Jabal al Harim, reaches 2,087 meters. The coastline is charac- terized by high cliffs that drop almost straight into the sea. There are many deep, sheltered coves and embayments, some with small sandy beaches. During the summer the climate is one of the hottest and most humid on earth.
Separated from the rest of Oman by the United Arab Emirates, the peninsular region is isolated and deso- late; probably no more than 10,000 people live in the area. Most of them are non-Arab fishermen and nomads who speak a language akin to Farsi. Until Secret recently the Omani Government had very little contact with these backward people, who live near the bare subsistence level. They are alleged to be hostile toward intruders. The largest village in northern Oman is Al Khasab, on the Persian Gulf coast just west of the Strait. There are currently no roads in northern Oman, only a few small, dirt airstrips
There are several islands off the Musandam coast, most of which are uninhabited and could be used for launching terrorist operations in the nearby channels. The As Salamah wa Banatuha (Quoin Islands), which lie about 14 kilometers off the tip of the peninsula, are of particular importance because of their location amidst the inbound shipping channel. This small archipelago consists of three islands?As Salamah (Great Quoin), Fanaku (Gap), and Didamar (Little Quoin). The last named houses a navigation beacon, as does Bu Rashid Island, across the shipping channel from the Quoin Islands and 5 kilometers from the coast.
Iran
Across the Strait, some 50 kilometers from the Musandam Peninsula and about 35 to 40 kilometers from the main shipping channels, lies the Iranian coast. The shoreline north of the Strait consists largely of mudflats and salt marshes, interspersed with a few sandy beaches. There are no sheltered bays such as those along the northern Omani coast
This region is much more densely populated than northern Oman. According to the 1976 census Hormozgan Province, which encompasses the coastal stretch along the Strait, had 463,491 inhabitants. Nearly one-fourth of them lived in the coastal city of Bandar Abbas, the largest city in the province, and the site of Iranian air and naval bases. A dredged channel about 10 meters deep leads from the Strait into a major, new, deepwater, general-cargo port
The coastal area is inhabited mainly by Arabs of Iranian origin, although Persians predominate in and east of Bandar Abbas. There are also small numbers of Africans of Somali, Sudanese, and Ethiopian origin.
Four large islands are located close to the Iranian shoreline in the Strait of Hormuz?Qeshm, Jazireh-ye Hengam, Jazireh-ye Larak, and Jazireh-ye Hormoz. Unlike the small, rugged Omani islands, all of the Iranian islands are inhabited, mainly by Arabs of Iranian origin. There are navigation beacons on each of the islands, as well as on a floating buoy southeast of Jazireh-ye Hormoz.
Economic Significance
The seven countries bordering the Persian Gulf have a combined population of only 58 million, but because of oil they enjoy a combined gross national product of $200 billion and per capita incomes among the highest in the world
The economic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is twofold: first, one-third of the world's oil supplies exit through this passage; second, most of the raw materi- als, manufactures, and food critical for economic development of the Persian Gulf states enter through this passage. About 19 million barrels of crude oil a day pass through the Strait of Hormuz in tankers. Another 2.0 to 2.5 million b/d can be exported directly to the Mediterranean via pipelines?the Tapline, Iraq- Syria Line, and Iraq-Turkey Line. These lines will be supplemented by a trans-Arabian pipeline now under construction between the Red Sea and the eastern oil- producing provinces of Saudi Arabia, which is de- signed to carry 2 million b/d.
Recent studies by Lloyds of London indicate that on an average day seven loaded supertankers 'exit the Strait,25X1 each with cargos of up to 3 million barrels of oil currently worth $50 to $60 million. The largest of the tankers measure some 400 meters in length, 70 meters in beam, are 45 meters high (from keel to superstruc- ture), and draw 30 meters of water. Overall, about 24 tankers arrive or depart daily, as well as about 28 cargo ships.
Nearly all of the oil is destined for the United States, Western Europe, and Japan. While about one-third of US oil imports come from the Persian Gulf, Western Europe and Japan are much more dependent on oil from this region.
Although the movement of oil from the region remains the major concern to the Western world, the surge in 'imports of consumer and industrial goods from the West in recent years is important to the development plans of the Gulf states, and to the economies of the Western nations and Japan which find lucrative markets there.
All of the governments of the Gulf are trying to improve the lot of the citizenry and to prepare for the day when their oil resources are depleted. Providing social services and an industrial infrastructure to countries that 25 years ago were little more than sleepy fishing villages visited occasionally by wandering nomads means starting from scratch in most cases. Since most of the area has a low level of industrial sophistication and little land suitable for agriculture, much of the raw materials and building equipment and much of the food must be imported from outside the area. The capacity of the present overland transporta- tion system is small, imported goods, therefore, have to come in by sea through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia with its access to the Red Sea is the only exception.
Imports of the Gulf states through the Strait of Hormuz came to $45 billion in 1977. Western Europe, Japan, and the United States supplied more than 80 percent of these imports, which consisted mainly of hi h technology, finished manufactures, and weapons.
Vulnerability of the Strait
Ever since the Palestinians started talking about sinking supertankers there, the vulnerability of oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz has become a matter of increasing concern not only to the oil-importing nations, but to the producing nations as well. The fact that one, or even several, sunken supertankers would not block the Strait does not rule out the possibility that terrorists might try to sink one anyway, for any attack on an oil tanker?whether successful or not?would have a serious psychological effect on both oil-exporting and oil-importing coun- tries.
Preserving the security of the Persian Gulf region, in particular preserving unimpeded maritime traffic Secret through the Strait of Hormuz, was a responsibility gladly shouldered by the Shah of Iran, who recognized that this role would justify Iran's acquisition of sufficient military power to make it preeminent in the region. The United States, Western Europe, and Japan cooperated, for the Shah's pro-Western orientation ensured the Soviet Union would not gain control over this strategically vital area.
The provisional government of postrevolutionary Iran, however, suspicious of both the United States and the Soviet Union, has announced it is relinquishing its role as the policeman of the Persian Gulf and will no longer accept responsibility for the securit of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
In any case, Iran's naval capabilities were sharply reduced by the February revolution. Though the Iranian Navy sustained no physical damage?ships, naval yards, and ammunition dumps were left in good condition?a shortage of manpower and lack of maintenance have reportedly left the Navy unable to mount any extensive missions, or even to mount effective patrols. The capabilities of the Iranian Air Force have similarly deteriorated.
Although there are some indications the Iranian Government intends to rebuild air and naval capabilities, for the present Iran is unable to provide for the security of the Strait of Hormuz?even if the government wanted it to do so.
Across the Strait to the south, Oman is in no better shape. Although Oman's own oil production is not exported through the Strait, Oman's conservative, pro- Western Sultan Qabus acknowledges his country's responsibility to guard the southern portion of the Strait. He claims, however, that Oman lacks the capability to do so. While this claim is made partly to buttress Oman's request for military aid, it is unfortu- nately correct. In sum, neither Iran nor Oman?nor any o&ier party?is guarding the Strait of Hormuz.
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